The Point Spread Column

By: Bob Johnson   Date: April 3, 2006

UCLA has a better bench than Florida, but the Gators have better shooters and a true inside-out game. UCLA played the best game they have played all year vs. LSU and the Tigers played their worst. So, essentially that game was over by halftime. However, if you look at the boxscore, UCLA's percentages went down in the second half and if LSU had made all of their free-throws they would have won 60-59. The Tigers missed 15 free throws and lost by 14 points. Obviously, you have to credit the tight UCLA defense for a lot, but LSU did what Memphis did in the first half. They played out of control early and took too many fast shots. When they had open looks, their shots missed. Even lay-ups wouldn't go down. They did get to the free-throw line and missed big there as I pointed out.

UCLA is prone to stretches where they don't score, so their defense will have to be even better vs. the pure shooters from Florida. The Gators don't have to rely on outside shots. If UCLA crowds the perimeter, Florida will get it inside to Noah or Horford. Also, the big guys can kick it back out which gives the Gators a true inside-out game. Rudy Tomjanovich won 2 NBA Championships with this same approach when he coached the Houston Rockets and Akeem Olajuwon. The Gators can also penetrate with guard Taurean Green or swingman Cory Brewer. Green is a smooth customer who was a playground monster in Brooklyn. He is a terrific all around player on offense and defense. He will have to handle the press against UCLA or it will hurt Florida. Cory Brewer is a solid defender and ball hawk who can penetrate or shoot from out. Noah is a shot blocker as well as a scorer and so the Gators are not only a tough offensive team, they are good on defense as well. Horford blocks shots, rebounds for second shots and scores as well. It is hard to keep such a solid shooting team from scoring and thus getting the tempo they like. They can run off a lot of points in transition if they get UCLA in an up and down game. But, they can also play a slower physical half court game against big men as they proved against Georgetown. In short, Florida has the finesse from their guards and the inside power from their bigs to form the most complete team in the tourney. They shoot threes, penetrate and play in the paint as well. They play good defense at stopping what the other teams want to do. They limited George Mason to 2 made trifectas. They have clutch players like Brewer and Green and inside presence with Noah and Horford. They get rebounding from Brewer as well as from Horford and Noah.

UCLA's defense has been outstanding and they have come a long way from struggling to beat some of the lesser Pac-Ten teams. Their bench has been excellent and they have needed that because they don't have a "go-to" guy on offense. The rapid development of freshman forward Mbah a Moute and senior center Hollins has helped get the Bruins this far. The credit must go to coach Ben Howland who has done a magnificent job. Guard Jordan Farmar is a solid all round player in the half-court attack and on defense. Arron Afflalo is a big guard but not a consistent shooter. They get good minutes off the bench from Collison, Mata and Bozeman and Roll.

This game represents a contrast in styles. Florida is more of a traditional uptempo team with all the necessary parts. Ucla prefers to slug it out and work each possession using most of the shot clock. It will be interesting to see how Florida's big men match-up vs. the Bruin bigs. UCLA has been able to win with swarming defense and just enough offense. They had a easy time of it vs. Memphis because Calipari's team played so out of control it looked like they were throwing the game. The LSU game was no contest as well. I don't believe that Florida will play as poorly as LSU and Memphis. The Bruins can come out to the perimeter to stop the three-ball, but the Gator shooters are so good they don't have to set up on the line. They can drain NBA type threes from well beyond the line or they can take it inside. If the game is close, UCLA is not a good free-throw shooting team which could really hurt them. I don't think that Florida has to rely on threes. They can get up and down so quick in transition that UCLA's bigs may have trouble staying with Noah. UCLA's Hollins is a 7 footer who has really improved. He may be able to match Horford on the boards, but nobody really matches up with Noah who could be the best player in the tournament.