The Point Spread Column

By: Bob Johnson   Date: December 8, 2005

What we are seeing in the NFL this year is the creation of a new underclass. The so-called parity has breeded a greater number of bad teams than ever before. Teams that were once mediocre have now fallen into decay. The result is that the majority of the teams in the NFL are no longer mediocre, that are just plain bad. If you categorize each NFL team closely, you will find that nearly HALF (15) of the teams now fall into the BAD category. There are now only 11 marginal teams and only 6 good teams. Last week, 12 favorites covered the spread to only 4 dogs. Many home underdogs that would usually cover in their position have been an abysmal 1-18-2 over the last 3 weeks. It has always been that in order to win in the NFL you have to take some poor teams at least part of the time. The linesmakers know that the public likes to play favorites, so they jack the line up a little on favorites to give the books an edge. This year, that has backfired and Vegas is getting killed on NFL games. Joe Public is winning big. The books are afraid to adjust the lines too high because then the wise-guys will swoop down on them. The problem with a lot of underdogs is that even though they normally would be in a very competitive situation in other years, this year the pool of dogs is polluted with really bad teams. We finished the regular season in College Football with a flourish, going 8-2 the last 2 weeks.