The Point Spread Column

By: Bob Johnson   Date: June 10, 2006

It may take a game or two for the Mavericks to figure out how to best attack Miami, but I strongly favor Dallas in this series. The depth and speed of Dallas will wear down Miami and frustrate them. Miami has huge matchup problems with the overall quickness of the Mavericks. I thought that Dallas was ready last year and they are even better now. Shaq and Wade will get their points, but Dallas has the bodies to give in the post, which means they have the fouls to give for Shaq. Ironically, it was ex-Dallas coach Don Nelson who invented the "Hack-a Shaq" strategy. Tim Duncan got his points and the Mavs beat San Antonio in spite of that.

The Western Conference was much stronger this year than the East and Dallas beat quality teams in San Antonio and Phoenix. Miami had to beat the "Baby Bulls" and then they got revenge for last year's loss in the playoffs to Detroit. Even though Detroit was tremendous during the regular season, they really imploded during the playoffs. Cleveland softened them up with LeBron James and then Miami finished them off. Obviously, the Pistons were not the defensive warriors that they were under Larry Brown. They let Dwayne Wade go to the basket at will. Flip Saunders had no answer for Shaq and Wade and the Pistons lost.

Dallas is so deep that they have numerous interchangeable parts at point guard and center. They are so deep that good players like Daryl Armstrong and Marquis Daniels sit on the bench most of the time. The Dallas talent pool brimmeth over. They should have an advantage with their role players coming off the bench. Miami basically was a two man team in the playoffs with the exception of Jason Williams in Game 6 vs. Detroit. The Mavericks have shown that they can win on the road and that they can come back from large deficits and wear down teams with their depth. Miami has a lot going for them with coach Pat Riley being a major factor. Riley loves to use the trapping defense and if Dallas has trouble with that, Miami could prosper. The odds are that the individual speed of Dallas will be able to beat the traps and pass out of it for some easy baskets. Everyone has trouble matching up with Shaq, but how does Miami match-up against Nowitzki and Josh Howard? Shaq and Antoine Walker and Gary Payton are old. Can Antoine Walker outplay Josh Howard? Walker can shoot a team in or out of a game. Howard scores, rebounds, plays defense and sells popcorn in the stands. He is a budding NBA star. Dallas has exciting young players like Devin Harris, DeSagana Diop, Josh Howard and Marquis Daniels. The Mav's average age is almost 5 years younger than the Heat. Miami has a superstar in Dwayne Wade and Udonis Haslem is an excellent rebounder. Alonzo Mourning is a good backup for Shaq. But Gary Payton's greatness is past him at age 37. Mourning is 36 and O'Neal is 34. The Mavs oldest player is 31 year old veteran Jerry Stackhouse. Jason Terry at 28, is the oldest starter for the Mavs, and probably the most unsung player in this series. If he gets hot shooting, watch out. All credit is due to Pat Riley and Shaq. If Wade gets healthy, they will make it interesting. Miami will do some damage inside to the Mavs, but can the Heat stop the "Little General" and his overwhelming troop strength? Can they matchup with the team speed of Dallas? In short, the Mavs have more options and that means so many more ways to win.