Handicapping Pre-Season Football

1. Throw out all your thinking about how these teams are in the regular season. Pre-season handicapping is totally different than the regular season. You can even violate some cardinal handicapping rules. Normally, one should not constantly try to play on his home team. In pre-season, homer plays can often be your best shot. NFL team coaches often tell the local media who they will play, and if they will try and win the game. If they are going against a team that doesn't care, or if your home team will use mostly rookies, (meaning the coach doesn't care if he wins or not), then you can play accordingly. All you need is to live near an NFL city and read the local paper to know what to do. The coaches will tell you a lot of the time, if you are paying attention.

2. Watch for a home team that has an incentive to win but is laying 2 ½ points or less. New coaches in 1st home games or teams that had bad records last year have incentive.

3. Some coaches want to build up momentum by winning the final pre-season game. Others don't care. Play accordingly. Play on a team that has lost two consecutive pre-season games and is playing its third game at home.

4. Shop the numbers. Nearly half of all pre-season games are decided by less than 7 points. So you might get value with a dog in the right situation at +7 or more. Nearly a third of all games are decided by 3, 4, or 7 points. Shop to get the best value with these numbers. If you like a dog at +3, see if you can find a 3 ½ at another sports book

5. The right situation can often mean finding a team that has a legitimate Quarterback battle. If the 2nd string challenger has equal ability then you will get a solid effort at QB for the whole game. This is especially true when you have read into the game and realize that this team has a strong incentive to win in that particular match-up.

6. Some coaches like Dennis Green and Bill Parcells like to win pre-season games. Other coaches don’t care and will actually tell you by saying things like, ‘we have a lot of players to look at in this game’. In other words, they are not focused on winning the game because they have to get a long look at their rookies.

7. Unlike the regular season where coaches are secretive, they literally unveil their intentions for every game in the pre-season. If you listen, you can find a situation where a coach will say that he intends to play his starters or starting QB for the majority of the game. Some coaches may feel pressure to win & will play starters vs. an opponent whose coach has publicly said that he has to look at a lot of players and will rest his stars most of the game. Be sure to check what the rotations will be for quarterbacks. Some coaches will say they need to give their starter more time in the final 2 games. Some coaches will decide to rest their starting QB for the final game. If they are going to play the starting QB, they will also play the starting offensive line. Take proper advantage of the best mis-match.

8. Home favorites that lost by 23 or more points in their last game have been high percentage plays to bounce back.

9. Finally a word about Money Management. This may be the most important point ! Be selective. This is the same approach as it should be in the regular season as well. When things are going OK, maximize appreciation by making your best plays as you normally would. When things are not doing so well, conserve capital, lower your units of play . If you are happy with a profit that you have made, then never be afraid to take the profit. If you are comfortably ahead at some point and the games are getting harder, take the profit and "spot play" or wait for a better week. Beware of wasting your hard-earned money on a Monday Night or nationally televised game that may not offer good value. Shop for value and let the big game come to you, don't reach for it. Beware of getting on the bandwagon. Analyze why people are on this game & if it makes sense before getting on it.

10. Many players have a betting pattern. Local books can deal you a bad line by knowing how you play. Some of the "offshore" books are better, and more reliable. They are also LEGAL.